We Are Off To The Races

By Kyle Flynn

I always say three types of people predict the Oscars seriously. The first are those who start their Oscar predictions right before the Golden Globes Nominations in December. The second are those who are mildly invested enough to start their predictions in late August, just in time for the main Fall Festivals (TIFF, Venice, Telluride, and NYFF). Finally, there are people like myself who never stop predicting. The day after the Oscars, you wake up, talk to some friends about the award ceremony, and then look at all the possible films for next year’s race. 

The Golden Row is a limited-run Oscar column that I will be writing (Kyle Flynn), and Dan (Skip) will be hosting. Throughout this debut article, I will run down the early contenders, talk a little bit about Sundance, SXSW and Cannes, and give my predictions for 11 of the 23 categories (The Above The Line Catergories and Three Additional Picture Catergories).

Starting with Best Picture, at Sundance and SXSW, unlike in previous years, there was nothing that looks like it has the juice to make it to the Oscars next year. I was fortunate enough to catch Didi, one of the buzziest titles of the fest, and although I was impressed, this will not be able to do it. I Saw The TV Glow may be able to squeeze out  a nomination in the screenplay or song categories but is unlikely to make it much farther unless CCA (Critics Choice) embraces it. The most likely to make it to Best Picture would be A Real Pain, which won screenplay at Sundance and got Keiran Culkin a decent amount of hype for supporting actor nomination. 

At Cannes, three clear films quickly emerge for what may able to make it all the way. Anora, All We Imagine As Light, and The Seed of the Scared Fig were all able to take home major prizes and have grand narratives backing them. Anora and All We Imagine As Light, especially since last year,, both the Palme d’or and Grand Prix winner making it into Best Picture. 

Best Picture Predictions (as of 6/15/2024)

1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros)
   1. Note: This is 95% not winning best picture but given that it is looking more and more likely to win close to as many Oscars as the first it is hard to argue that at this point it isn’t the most likely film for a nomination. 
2. Sing Sing (A24)
   1. It seems A24 is positioning this as their primary contender, giving it a similar release structure to Past Lives. The likelihood of an afterglow nomination for Coleman looks likely.
3. Blitz (Apple)
   1. Who knows what is going on with this film? It fits the vein of traditional Oscar film well, and it makes me want to keep it high.
4. Nickel Boys (Amazon)
   1. I am surprisingly bullish on this, and I have a feeling this will be this year’s directorial debut and a strong contender for Adapted Screenplay.
5. Anora (Neon)
   1. Palme d’Or winner and Sean Baker is well-liked by the members of the Academy.
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon)
   1. It is likely the international slot for director this year. Iran will not submit this for Foreign Language Feature. 
7. Joker: Folie a Deux (Warner Bros)
   1. Who knows? Hahaha
8. A Piano Lesson (Netflix)
   1. I needed a Netflix rep, and this is mostly a placeholder until they buy something at the fall festivals. Although this is an adaptation of a Tony-winning play, so that is something.
9. A Real Pain (Searchlight)
   1. I needed a Disney Rep and chose this over Nightbitch to make it into the 10. 
10. Conclave (Focus Features)
    1. A new nomination for an Edward Berger film, adapted from a highly respected novel, and Focus Features backing it.
11. We Live in Time (A24)
12. Queer (Freemantle)
13. Here (Tristar/Sony)
14. Nightbitch (Searchlight)
15. All the Light We Can Imagine (Janus Films)
16. The Room Next Door (Warner Bros)
17. Gladiator 2 (Paramount)
18. Maria (Freemantle)
19. Juror No. 2 (Juror No.2)
20.  Emilia Perez (Netflix)

Director:

1. Steve Mcqueen (Blitz)
2. Denis Villenuve (Dune: Part Two)
3. Sean Baker (Anora)
4. Mohammad Rasoulof (Seed of a Sacred Fig)
5. Edward Berger (Conclave)

Actor:

1. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
2. Coleman Domingo (Sing SIng)
3. Daniel Craig (Queer)
4. Joaquin Pheonix (Joker: Folie a Deux)
5. Andrew Garfield (We Live In Time)
6. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
7. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
8. Paul Mescal (Gladiator 2)
9. Tom Hanks (Here)
10.  Nicholas Hoult (Juror No. 2)

Actress

1. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie a Deux)
2. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
3. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
4. Amy Adams (Nightbitch)
5. Mikey Madison (Anora)
6. Florence Pugh (We Live In Time)
7. Robin Wright (Here)
8. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
9. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
10. Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
    1. (If this comes out)

Supporting Actor

1. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
   1. I am hesitant to put this number one. Samuel also acted in the stage version and was predicted to win the Tony but lost. We will have to see if it is different at the Oscars.
2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
3. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
4. Harris Dickson (Blitz)
5. Clarence Martin (Sing Sing)
6. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator 2)
8. Drew Starkey (Queer)
9. Paul Betany (Here)
10. John Lithgow (Conclave)

Supporting Actress

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
2. Lesley Manville (Queer)
   1. I would kill just to give Lesley Manville an Oscar. 
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
   1. She is having a great year, a lot of Rossellini films this year.
4. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
5. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)
6. Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez)
7. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
8. Kelly Reilly (Here)
9. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2)
10.  Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 

Orginial Screenplay

1. Blitz (Steve Mcqueen)
2. A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
3. Anora (Sean Baker)
4. Kinds of Kindness (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
5. The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodovar)
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoulof)
7. We Live In Time (Nick Payne)
8. Challengers (Justin Kurizkes)
9. The Apprentice (Gabriel Sherman)
10.  Emilia Perez (Jacques Audiard)
11. Hard Truths (Mike Leigh)

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
2. Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)
3. Dune: Part Two (Jon Spaihts, Denis Vileneuve)
4. Conclave (Peter Straughan)
5. Queer (Justin Kuritzkes)
6. The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington, Virgil Williams)
7. Joker: Folie a Deux (Todd Philips, Scott Silver)
8. Here (Eric Roth, Robert Zemeckis)
   1. Eric Roth is usually pretty solid when it come to screenplay noms, in fact, the only miss I can think of is last year when he barely missed his nomination for Killers of the Flower Moon. It hurts not to predict him.
9. Nightbitch (Marielle Heller)
10. Gladiator 2 (David Scarpa)

International Feature

Note: You can’t really predict International Feature before the country picks the film they plan to submit, due to the one country per film rule

1. All We Imagine As Light
2. Emilia Perez
3. Evil Does Not Exist
4. Parthenope
5. Girls Will Be Girls
6. The Girl with the Needle
7. Grand Tour
8. The Outrun

Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot
   1. Dreamworks has only won once for animated feature for there film Shrek. I believe this is the year they get there second especially since the Academy has been hesitant to award sequels (very sequel heavy this year) and the children’s book it is adapted from being acclaimed.
2. Inside Out 2
3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Memoir of a Snail
5. Moana 2
6. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
7. Orion and the Dark
8. Flow
9. Piece by Piece
10.  The Most Precious of Cargoes
11. Kung Fu Panda 4

Documentary Feature

1. Daughters 
2. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
3. Black Box Diaries
4. Youth (Spring)
5. Skywalkers: A Love Story
6. Frida 
7. Piece by Piece
8. Girls State
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeves Story
10. Will and Harper

These are early predictions for the Above the Line categories of the 2025 Academy Awards. Please note these predictions were finalized for this list on June 15, 2024. My next article for this column will be an updated version including all 20 of the academy categories (this is excluding the short film categories) in August right before the Fall Festivals barring any major developments that would cause me to write an article. 

These predictions are my own. I would like to thank my friend Dan, who took the time curate space for this column and allow me the space to write out my predictions.