August/September | Issue #2

By Kyle Flynn

We are about one day away from the start of the Venice Film Festival, the first of the major fall film festivals. Shortly after Venice starts, the Telluride and Toronto (TIFF) Festivals will begin. Lastly, we have the last major fall festival, NYFF (New York), at the end of September, with LFF (London) sandwiched between Toronto and NYFF. 

This is an exciting season because, by the end of September, you can pinpoint who will get nominated with actual accuracy. Very few prime Oscar Contenders try to premier post-Fall Festivals without any festival presence. This year, there are certainly a few that will likely follow that route, the prime example being A Complete Unknown this December. Don’t be surprised if films like Here and Nosferatu exhibit the potential to shoot farther than just commercial success, given the talent both in front and behind the camera. I know I am more bullish on Here than most; despite the current trend of flops from Zemekics, the stats show the reliance an Eric Roth screenplay can have on your film’s prospects.

The slate programmed by Venice this year is fascinating. It is a blend of Young Hollywood and Old Hollywood, a fantastic slate of features from different countries, a wide range of budgets across the films, and a spectrum of genres. The jury is led by Isabelle Huppert, one of our quintessential actresses, and comprises some of my favorite filmmakers to make up the rest of the jury. 

Starting with the In Competition titles, it feels that certainly, the film that has the most hype going in is Joker: Folie a Deux. You can attribute this to three reasons, the first being the commercial, critical, and awards success of Joker (2019), the second being the different take that Todd Phillips is taking by making it a Jukebox Musical, and finally, the anticipation of another awards campaign from Lady Gaga and the current controversy revolving Joaquin with him leaving Todd Hayne’s most recent film. 

Following shortly behind Queer (dir. Luca Guadagnino), Maria (dir. Pablo Larrain), The Brutalist (dir. Brady Corbet), and The Room Next Door (dir. Pedro Almodóvar would likely round out the five hottest tickets at Venice this year. All are from notable filmmakers with exciting casts. The other In Competition titles I would keep an eye out for are I’m Still Here (dir. Walter Salles), Babygirl (dir. Halina Reijn), The Quiet Son (dir. Coulin Sisters), and Harvest (dir. Athina Rachel Tsangari). My current predictions for Venice are:

Golden Lion: The Brutalist 

Grand Jury: I’m Still Here

Special Jury: Joker: Folie a Deux

Silver Lion: Queer

Moving onto Telluride, the brief and casual festival with some of the best features available. Telluride doesn’t announce its program until closer to the festival, but you can deductively reason what many of the films are by how the other festivals list their premieres. Some films that will likely premiere are Conclave, The End, Saturday Night, The Piano Lesson, The Friend, and Better Man. I assume that Maria will carry over from Venice, and Anora and The Seed of the Sacred Fig will carry over from Cannes. There will be a few more major films that play at Telluride. 

TIFF will be a lot of fun this year, and I expect a lot of news from this festival—every film we have discussed above, except for Joker: Folie a Deux and Maria, will play there. Some exciting movie premieres include Nightbitch, The Life of Chuck, We Live In Time, Eden, and The Wild Robot. 

People’s Choice is one of the most important predictors of Best Picture. Most years, two of the three films will make it into Best Picture, and since the expanded era (2009 and later), the winner of People’s Choice has made it except for 2011. Many did not predict American Fiction for Best Picture until after it won People’s Choice, but I knew, as did many, that it was now in my best interest to predict. My predictions for the awards:

People’s Choice Award: Emilia Perez

People’s Choice Award, First Runner Up: Saturday Night

People’s Choice Award, Second Runner Up: The Piano Lesson (Almost chose The Wild Robot or Anora)

The final Fall Festival, NYFF, doesn’t have a dedicated award, but the main slate at NYFF highlights three films: the Opening Night film, The Centerpiece, and The Closing Night film. The Nickel Boys (dir. RaMell Ross), a prime contender for this year’s Oscar race, was selected as the Opening Night film. The Centerpiece film was chosen as The Room Next Door (dir. Pedro Almodovar). Finally, one of my most anticipated films, Blitz (dir. Steve McQueen), was selected as the Closing Night film.  

As it stands, here are my Best Picture Rankings:

1. Blitz (Apple) (Going to keep at Number 1 until LFF)
2. Sing Sing (A24)
3. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
4. Anora (Neon)
5. Conclave (Focus Features)
6. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios)
7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)
8. The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
9. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Emilia Pérez (Netflix)

On the Cusp (for now)

11. Queer (No US Distribution)
12. Gladiator 2 (Paramount)
13. The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Neon)
14. Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros.)
15. The Brutalist (No US Distribution)
16. Saturday Night (Sony)
17. Here (Sony)
18. We Live In Time (A24)
19. Nightbitch (Searchlight)
20. The End (Neon)

Take Care! See you all when we recap the Oscar Race Post Fall Festivals next time.