Written by Kyle Flynn

The Golden Row is proud to be the premiere source for the Oscars. In this edition of the Golden Row, we will be focused on the Documentary Feature Race, developments after the election and fall festivals, and where my head is currently with the twenty main categories. 

On the day of my final edit of this article, the final contender of the season, A Complete Unknown, has just been shown to audiences. This marks a significant period in the Oscar Race because we now have a semblance of thoughts on every film competing this season. With critics groups around the corner and Golden Globe nominations in just three weeks, the race feels like it is starting.

Reflections on the Election and Fall Festivals: 

With a second Trump Presidency on the horizon, we have to question what effect that could have on the different regional critics groups. In both 2016 and 2020, you can see the impact the election had on the precursors, with Moonlight beating out La La Land in critics group wins and Nomadland winning by such a large polarity with critics groups. Both are politically charged, Moonlight with themes on racism and homosexuality, while Nomadland tackles the disenfranchisement that affects so many Americans. 

Thinking about what films competing this season could benefit. My first thought instantly went to what I consider the four locks we have in Best Picture so far: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Perez. Anora and The Brutalist, with their pseudo-American Dream deconstruction narratives, Emilia Perez with trans rights being in the limelight with the election of Donald Trump that feels like it could be benefited, and Conclave being about an election with a very moralistic third act. Dune: Part Two, A Real Pain, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Gladiator 2, Nosferatu, and The Substance all feel like they have either stayed the same or have been hurt. 

Moreover, Sing Sing and Nickel Boys are the ones I feel can gain the most. Hopefully, it will propel and secure Sing Sing in its key races and allow Nickel Boys to be seen and explored by critics and award-season voters. Many thought that the Sing Sing campaign earlier this season fell flat with its release strategy, me included, but A24 feels like it is building up to something great and will go for the double nomination. When referring to Nickel Boys, where the reception at Telluride and NYFF was stellar, but I question if the forward momentum could have already reached its peak.

The Fall Festivals generated a lot of noise. Like every year, contenders rise, and contenders fall. At Venice, Pedro Almodovar was able to get another Golden Lion (his first was honorary) for The Room Next Door. Cementing the film as a prime contender in the race. The Silver Lion was delivered to Brady Corbet’s 215-minute opus, The Brutalist, giving us a very early frontrunner. Finally, I want to mention the Volpi-Cup (Best Actress); the jury always chooses something poignant more than any other award. Nicole Kidman took it home for Babygirl, a performance that I enjoyed and will likely generate a lot of conversation this Christmas. 

At Tiff, The Life of Chuck won The People’s Choice Award. Soon after, Neon acquired the film for distribution next year. 2nd Runner Up went to the aforementioned Emilia Perez, and 3rd Runner Up went to Anora. Regarding Anora, Neon is closely following the trajectory that won Parasite Best Picture with both the Palme’Dor and 3rd Runner-Up placement at Tiff. Telluride and NYFf went as expected, with success in each of their premieres and showcased films. 

The Documentary Feature Race has also begun to heat up, with CCDA, IDA, Cinema Eye,  and the Gotham Awards releasing nominations. Sugarcane has taken the lead in the race by getting nominations at each. No Other Land, a contender that many identified early on has remained strong. Gotham and IDA winners almost always go on to be nominated, and No Other Land I suspect will plow through and win Gotham. Daughters has gone from an early favorite for the nomination to a contender on the cusp after it flopped with every precursor with the exception of CCDA. Netflix’s other contender The Remarkable Life of Ibelin despite doing better than Daughters in the precursors doesn’t bode much confidence overall in its ability to get nominated in the end. 

Here are my predictions for the twenty categories (this excludes the shorts):

Picture:

1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Wicked Part One
5. Emilia Perez
6. Dune Part Two
7. Sing Sing
8. A Real Pain
9. Nickel Boys 
10. The Room Next Door

I have come to the conclusion that I believe Conclave will take it. Anora, The Brutalist, and Wicked all don’t feel right to me, and earlier I defaulted to Anora like most and promptly switched to The Brutalist after seeing it at the Fall Festivals. None felt right, but you normally need a screenplay or director to win the Picture, and I had full confidence that The Brutalist would take Director and Anora would take Original Screenplay. My Adapted Screenplay prediction was Sing Sing (a film I can’t envision winning just yet) in my previous article, but after seeing Conclave, I chose to switch. The film reminds me of early 2000s Miramax contenders, and I have this feeling that it really might pull off the win in Picture. 11, A Complete Unknown; 12, The Seed of the Sacred Fig; 13, Blitz; 14, September 5; 15, Gladiator 2; 

Director:

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
4. Edward Berger (Conclave)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Dune Part Two)

John M. Chu or RaMell Ross could make it in pending precursor nominations. 

Actor:

1. Ralph Fienes (Conclave)
2. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
3. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
4. Coleman Domingo (Sing Sing)
5. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

I’ll be honest. I do see it being difficult for Ralph Fiennes to hop Chalamet and Brody for Actor, but it makes sense to predict that he will go along with the Picture win. That fifth slot is wide open, and I chose Eisenberg simply because his film is likely to be in the Best Picture category compared to many of the other films. I have Stan for The Apprentice, Daniel Craig for Queer, and Paul Mescal right behind though.

Actress:

1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
5. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)

Kidman is 6, Moore is 7, Ronan is 8, Jean-Baptiste is 9, and Torres is 10.

Supporting Actor:

1. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
2. Denzel Washington (Gladiator 2)
3. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
4. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
5. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)

Yura Borisov is 6, Edward Norton is 7, and Jeremy Strong is 8.

Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
4. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
5. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

I really wanted to keep Danielle Deadwyler in the 5 I just don’t know if Netflix can do it, but she is my 6. Selena Gomez at 7, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor at 8, and Monica Barbaro at 9, and Natasha Lyonne at 10.

Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. A Real Pain
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
5. September 5

Blitz is pretty much interchangeable with that fifth slot. The Substance and Saturday Night trailing in the 7th and 8th slot.  

Adapted Screenplay: 

1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing
3. Nickel Boys
4. Room Next Door
5. Dune Part Two

Wicked and Emilia Perez, are musicals and thus will have an upward battle getting in. 

Documentary:

1. Sugarcane
2. No Other Land
3. Dahomey
4. Black Box Diaries 
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

So many documentaries fighting for a slot right, curious to see what makes the shortlist for the narrow down process.

International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
3. I’m Still Here
4. Vermiligo
5. The Girl With the Needle

The top three feel set, we will have to see what makes the cut on the shortlist and what gains momentum.

Animated Feature: 

1. The Wild Robot
2. Inside Out 2
3. Memoir of a Snail
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
5. Flow

Best Editing:

1. Dune Part Two
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Emilia Perez 

Wicked is certainly taking the air out of the room for Emilia Perez, very close to sticking it in that 5th slot. 

Best Sound:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Emilia Perez
3. Wicked
4. Gladiator 2
5. A Complete Unknown

Best Make-up and Hairstyling:

1. Dune Part Two
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. The Substance (Could win if it gets nominated but I am doubtful it even makes the shortlist)
4. Wicked
5. Emilia Perez 

Best Costume Design:

1. Wicked 
2. Dune Part Two
3. Maria
4. Gladiator 2
5. Blitz

Best Production Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune Part Two
3. The Brutalist
4. Gladiator 2
5. Blitz

Best Cinematography: 

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune Part Two
3. Emilia Perez
4. Nickel Boys
5. The Girl With The Needle

Not convinced on Edward Lachman for Maria just yet, if he gets ASC again I will likely put him in. Stephane Fontaine is on the prowl for Conclave, but feel those above are more likely. Nosferatu at 8.

Best Visual Effects:

1. Dune Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Gladiator 2
5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Better Man at 6 and Blitz at 7.

Best Score:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. Emilia Perez
4. The Room Next Door
5. Challengers 

If Dune is eligible, it would be my number 2. The Wild Robot at 6, Saturday Night at 7, and Blitz at 8.

Best Song:

1. The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren’s year)
2. El Mal – Emilia Perez
3. Mi Camino – Emilia Perez
4. Like a Bird – Sing Sing
5. Forbidden Road – Better Man

Harper and Will Go West – Will and Harper would 6, followed by Kiss the Sky – Wild Robot, and Compress/Repress – Challengers.

This is where my head is in all the categories at the Oscars. With Golden Globe Nominations on the horizon, I may try and knock out a second article covering my predictions prior to the nomination announcement. I do want to share who I believe will win the Best Film at the four major critics groups and my predictions for the Gotham Awards. 

Gotham Winner Predictions

Best Feature: Anora; alternate Nickel Boys

Best Screenplay: Janet Planet; alternate His Three Daughters

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land; alternate Dahomey (winner here is very important for Oscar Race)

Best International Feature: All We Imagine as Light; alternate Hard Truths

Best Director: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; alt. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Breakthrough Director: Mahdi Fleifel – To a Land Unknown; alt. Vera Drew – The People’s Joker

Outstanding Lead Performance: Demi Moore, The Substance; alt. Anora, Mikey Madison

Outstanding Supporting Performance: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; alt. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Breakthrough Performer: Brandon Wilson, Nickel Boys; alt. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

I did horribly last year. Gotham’s are hard to predict, and with the exception of documentaries really should not be used to predict the Oscars. It is also the first show so you have to find a way to gauge what the temperature in the room is. My predictions for the four major critics groups in Best Picture with my top three picks: 

NSFS: (1) All We Imagine As Light, (2) Nickel Boys, (3) Anora (maybe Hard Truths)

NBR: (1) Conclave, (2) Anora, (3) Wicked Part One

NYFCC: (1) Nickel Boys, (2) Anora, (3) All We Imagine As Light

LAFCA: (1) Nickel Boys, (2) Anora, (3) The Brutalist

It feels a little odd not selecting Anora, clearly the critical darling of the year to win any of the major critics’ awards. I thought about selecting it for LAFCA, and out of curiosity I searched when the last film that won LAFCA was set in New York. The answer would be Tar (2022), but prior to that was Goodfellas (1990) which made me a little hesitant. I think Anora is in the top three for each, and I am sure one will likely bat for it, my money is on NBR or NYFCC. I feel good about where I have everything though. Finally, my projected awards trajectory for the Conclave Best Picture win: 

Precursors that matter for Best Picture:

Three Televised Awards: 

BAFTA (+2): Conclave will likely take

CCA (+1): Anora

Globes (+1): Conclave (1) vs Brutalist (2) in Picture Drama, with Anora (1) vs Wicked (2) taking Comedy

Big Four Critics Groups:

NSFS (+0.5): All We Imagine As Light

NBR (+0.5): Anora vs Conclave 

NYFCC (+0.5): Nickel Boys, Runner Up: Anora

LAFCA (+0.5): Anora or Nickel Boys

Four Guilds:

PGA (+3): Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez or Brutalist

DGA (+2): Brutalist

WGA (+2): Conclave or Sing Sing for Adapted, Anora for Original 

SAG Ensemble (+2): Conclave vs Sing Sing vs Emilia Perez vs Anora

I will see everyone next time!