By Kulr Flynn

The day has come—final Oscar Nomination Predictions. After doing extremely well on my Golden Globes Winner Predictions and Critics Choice Nomination Predictions, ranking in the Top 15 on Gold Derby for each, respectively. Once the industry awards started, my performance started to fumble. Despite my poor performance on SAG and BAFTA nominations, I feel confident I will do well on my final Oscar Predictions. Let’s not waste time, here are the 23 categories:

Best Picture:

As far as I am concerned, nine films are in, with five films fighting for the 10th slot. The question is Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, All We Imagine As Light (AWIAL), September 5, or Nosferatu. I have thought closely about this category, and the choice of what is most important to you is what you will go with. The precursors would favor Nickel Boys, even with it missing PGA, has clear pathway in the adapted screenplay category, and that is all it would need. While stats clearly favor September 5, a film that gets Golden Globes Drama + PGA should not miss, but its overall precursor hall has been rough. If you want to predict based on vibes, Sing Sing and AWIAL are clearly the options, films with a lot of passion and competitive in multiple above the line categories. Finally, momentum, I really do believe Nosferatu could pull off the Nightmare Alley package. It is eyeing 2-5 below-the-line noms, it is not as far off as people think. 

1. Conclave
2. The Brutalist
3. Emilia Perez
4. Anora
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Wicked
7. Dune Part Two
8. The Substance 
9. A Real Pain
10. All We Imagine As Light

I tend to lean on precursors when predicting. I have an itch that All We Imagine As Light is number 10, and I really, really want to predict it (and I may blink and do it before the 23rd), but if I am trying to minimize the amount I am going to get wrong I have to do Nickel Boys. 

Best Director:

Two locks, Two more likely than not, and one toss-up. 

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
2. Jaques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
3. Sean Baker (Anora), could be snubbed, but no one wants to talk about it. 
4. Edward Berger (Conclave)
5. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light)

The smart choice would be Coralie Fargeat, but I am hesitant to predict her due to the genre bias this branch has shown in the past. She has also yet to make a lineup of 5, every lineup she has made has been 6 or more. Kapadia fits with the sensibilities of the director’s branch, even if it is on a smaller scale. Villeneuve, Ross, and Mangold would round out 7-9 in that order. 

Best Actress:

1. Mikey Madison
2. Demi Moore
3. Karla Sofia Gascon 
4. Fernanda Torres
5. Cynthia Erivo 

Cynthia has made it everywhere, so I would not worry, but it does feel like Wicked has peaked. Marianne Jean Baptiste has also secured the trifecta of critics and is making a run for it, I believe, however, she is stealing votes from Cythina, not Fernanda, likely splitting the British vote. Maybe there is a possibility of a Pamela Anderson sneak, but I remain trepidatious.

Best Actor:

1. Ralph Fiennes
2. Adrien Brody
3. Timothee Chalamet
4. Coleman Domingo
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice, not a Different Man)

Going with Stan over Craig just feels like there is more noise over the performance.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin
2. Edward Norton
3. Yura Borisov 
4. Guy Pearce
5. Jeremy Strong

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldana
2. Ariana Grande
3. Isabella Rossellini
4. Monica Barbaro
5. Jamie Lee Curtis

These last two slots are rough, so many contenders. I chose Barbaro and Curtis, over Jones, Qualley, and Deadwyler for a couple of reasons Monica is in a top 5 best picture contender while Jones is as well her performance is not only divisive, but we are not certain how many people have watched the second half. I chose Curtis because she has double industry nominations. I may change it before Thursday, but that is where I am leaning.

 Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Nickel Boys
4. Sing Sing 
5. Emilia Perez

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. A Real Pain
3. The Brutalist
4. The Substance 
5. September 5

Watch out for AWIAL here.

Best Documentary Feature:

1. No Other Land
2. Porcelain War
3. Black Box Diaries
4. Sugarcane
5. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Who knows, in this category, I feel good about the top 2. I am snubbing Daughters because it missed the IDA Longlist, and when it comes to documentary prizes, I hold the most value in that. I feel pretty good about Queendom, Union, and Hollywoodgate, and I would steer you away from Soundtrack to Coup d’Etat, Will and Harper, and Dahomey.

Best International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez
2. I’m Still Here
3. Kneecap
4. Flow
5. Vermiglio 

Snubbing Sacred Fig. Chose Vermiglio over The Girl With the Needle due to it getting the best film nomination at The European Film Awards. It could be The Girl With the Needle though.

Best Animated Feature:

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Inside Out 2
5. Memoir of a Snail

Cinematography:

1. Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
2. Greig Fraser (Dune Part Two)
3. Stephane Fontaine (Conclave)
4. Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu)
5. Paul Guailhame (Emilia Perez)

ASC had seven nominations this year, and Emilia Perez was not one of them, which is very concerning. The lineup I have is also 5/5 with both BAFTA and BSC, something that never happens. If you want to go against Emilia, the smartest choice would be A Complete Unknown. Papamichael is a two-time nominee and got both the Bafta longlist + ASC. Watch out for The Girl with the Needle it is bizarre to have a lineup without a black-and-white film, it is the only one shortlisted. Additionally, it won the Golden Frog, a major cinematography award.

Best Editing:

1. Dune Part Two 
2. Conclave
3. Anora
4. Emilia Perez
5. A Complete Unknown

ACU is missing the ACE nomination, but I think that may be due to screening issues I feel pretty good about this lineup. Wicked could sneak in here, Myron Kerstein has gotten in for weaker films in the past (Tick, Tick, Boom). Don’t doubt September 5. 

Best Sound:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Gladiator 2
5. Emilia Perez

Score:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. Emilia Perez
4. Wicked
5. The Room Next Door

There are five dogs fighting for 4 & 5. If you are going based on precursors The Wild Robot, Nosferatu, and Challengers, all are far more likely. I have no faith in Kris Bowers they passed him by for Trial of Chicago 7 and Green Book, he is in consciousness after winning Documentary Short last year for The Last Repair Shop, so maybe he could pull it out. The score for Challengers is too techno. Nosferatu is my number 6, and the BAFTA nomination is scary, but choosing The Room Next Door because of the love that has been shown to Alberto’s scores in the past. 

Song:

1. El Mal (Emilia Perez)
2. The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)
3. Mi Camino (Emilia Perez)
4. Never Too Late (Elton John)
5. Sick in the Head (Kneecap)

Going to take some swings with the 4 & 5 slots. I think the strength and love for Elton is there, and the international strength for Kneecap gives me some faith. 

Production Design: 

1. Wicked 
2. Dune Part Two
3. The Brutalist
4. Nosferatu
5. Gladiator 2

Conclave and A Complete Unknown are right on the heels, it is really about if you think they can take out Gladiator 2. 

Costume Design:

1. Wicked 
2. Nosferatu
3. Gladiator 2
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Maria 

I chose Maria because Massimo Cantini Parrini has been nominated twice this decade for both Pinocchio and Cyrano. It is tough not choosing the legend Colleen Atwood, but Beetlejuice, Conclave, and A Complete Unknown are right behind. 

Visual Effects

1. Dune Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Better Man
4. Gladiator 2
5. Wicked

Mufasa and Alien: Romulus are right behind. 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

I have no idea what is going on in this category. I don’t think there are any locks (including The Substance), and 9/10 of the shortlist nominees could make the 5.  

1. The Substance
2. A Different Man
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
4. Waltzing With Brando
5. Wicked

Live Action Short: 

1. The Masterpiece
2. The Compatriot 
3. An Orange from Jaffa
4. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
5. Dovecote

Animated Short

1. Wander to Wonder
2. A Bear Named Wojtek
3. Maybe Elephants
4. In the Shadow of the Cypress
5. Goodbye My World (aka Au Revoir Mon Monde)

Documentary Short

1. I Am Ready, Warden 
2. Incident
3. A Swim Lesson
4. Instruments of a Beating Heart
5. Makayala’s Voice: A Letter to the World

I may put in Once Upon A Time in Ukraine, it has a very catchy title hahaha.

These are my predictions; hopefully, I will not steer you all in the wrong direction. I will have some written thoughts on the nominations and my thoughts up sometime next weekend. In the event that any of these predictions change on my end, I will disclose what I changed in my article next week, although I think I wrote out my thoughts on categories I thought I might change.