By Kyle Flynn

For all my Oscar Completionists out there, you may understand the reference to the subtitle of this edition of the Golden Row. The 22nd Best Picture winner, All the King’s Men (1949), ends on a note of reputation, greatness, and what could have been. It felt fitting when looking at the discourse that has plagued so many of the films competing for Oscars this year. 

I am excited, however, to end this Oscar season on a high note. My final Oscar Predictions are below, with explanations. 

Picture: 

If you have been a regular reader, you know I was an early adopter of Conclave the film that would ultimately take Best Picture. Even after the underperformance on Oscar nomination morning, I doubled down on multiple personal bets with friends on Conclave taking Best Picture. I even made a bet with our editor-in-chief, Skip, on Conclave vs. The Brutalist for $25. Everything changed on Feb. 8, once Conclave lost PGA, my confidence started to change. At this point, Anora has WGA + CCA + DGA + PGA, while Conclave has BAFTA and CCA (you can assume it would win WGA if it was eligible). I would place Anora at a 65% chance and Conclave at 35% chance. 

1. Anora
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. A Complete Unkown
5. Wicked
6. Emilia Perez
7. The Substance
8. Nickel Boys
9. I’m Still Here
10. Dune: Part Two

Director:

Baker has DGA, and Corbet has GG + BAFTA. Baker has the film that’s in the top 2 for Picture. 

1. Baker (Anora)
2. Corbet (The Brutalist)

Actor:

HAHAHA if Timmy had given that SAG speech before voting ended, he would have been so cooked, but even now I feel strongly Brody has it.

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 

Actress:

I have many thoughts on this category. My brain is telling me Demi Moore, my heart is telling me Mikey Madison, and my gut is telling Fernanda Torres.” In scenarios like this, I almost always lean on my brain (stats, precursors, narrative, etc). There is one thing stats don’t account for, and that is momentum, which Mikey and Fernanda most definitely have. I might flinch and change to Demi or maybe Mikey at the last second, but for now, I have to say Fernanda. 

1. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
2. Demi Moore (The Substance)
3. Mikey Madison (Anora)

Supporting Actor:

Kieran swept. 

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
2. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
3. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice

Supporting Actress:

Zoe swept.

1. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
2. Isabella Rosselini (Conclave)
3. Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Original Screenplay:

A Real Pain won BAFTA, The Substance won CCA, and Anora won WGA. Films not in Best Picture don’t win screenplay, and The Substance won a non-industry award, so I am sticking with Anora. However, A Real Pain feels like it could pull the upset. 

1. Anora 
2. A Real Pain
3. The Substance

Adapted Screenplay:

CCA + GG + BAFTA for Conclave and WGA for Nickel Boys. Conclave probably still has it. 

1. Conclave
2. Nickel Boys
3. A Complete Unknown

Best Editing: 

Challengers is not nominated, and that won most of the precursors. Conclave took BAFTA, so…

1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. Emilia Perez
4. Wicked

Visual Effects:

Dune duh.

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of The Apes
3. Wicked

Production Design: 

Wicked with some upset potential for The Brutalist.

1. Wicked
2. The Brutalist
3. Dune: Part Two

Sound:

All five nominees have won at least one of the guilds. Dune is the only film to have won more than one + BAFTA, so it’s the favorite, but I may switch as Emilia Perez, and Wicked are both in editing and are throwing me. A Complete Unknown and The Wild Robot are both relatively strong, too. 

1. Dune: Part Two 
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Wicked

International Feature:

Emilia Perez has been on a downward trajectory, and I’m Still Here has only been going up. As you can see from my best picture rankings, I still think Emilia Perez is stronger overall, but I’m going to say the momentum here gives I’m Still Here the win. 

1. I’m Still Here
2. Emilia Perez
3. Flow

Animated Feature:

I think Robot takes this. 

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Documentary:

Sadly, people care about Ukraine more than Palestine. 

1. Porcelain War
2. No Other Land
3. Sugarcane

Score:

The Brutalist won this award during the first few minutes of the movie. 

1. The Brutalist 
2. Conclave
3. Wicked

Song:

The Oscars will likely lean with El Mal, but Diane Warren might be able to pull off the upset.

1. El Mal (Camile)
2. The Journey (Diane Warren)
3. Never Too Late (Elton John)

Makeup & Hairstyling: 

The Substance easily. 

1. The Substance
2. Wicked
3. Emilia Perez

Costume Design: 

Wicked will take this, 100%.

1. Wicked
2. Conclave
3. Nosferatu

Cinematography: 

The Brutalist won this award during the first few minutes of the movie x2. That Statue of Liberty shot will live on forever. 

1. The Brutalist 
2. Nosferatu
3. Maria

Animated Short:

Watched all five. The best was Wander to Wonder, and it also has the best precursor hall. Magic Candies is the only one from a recognizable studio (Toei Animation, known for many of the great anime films). Yuck has a pretty great title too lol.

1. Wander to Wonder
2. Magic Candies
3. Yuck! 

Live Action Short:

English language bias and strong political messaging make me lean toward A Lien. I am certain that the Man Who Could Not Remain Silent will be close if not winning it all together. 

1. A Lien
2. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
3. The Last Ranger

Documentary Short:

Tough category, but I Am Ready Warden will eek out the winning. You should never take it too seriously, but the anonymous ballots strongly lean toward Incident, which also happens to be the best of all 15 of the shorts easily.
1. I Am Ready Warden

2. Incident

3. The Only Girl in the Orchestra

These are my final predictions for the upcoming award show. I would like to speak to a few things that will happen on Oscar night. I am hopeful that Conan will be a good host and bring some humor and class to the awards. My frustration is high with the Academy, and they made the decision to omit the original songs for a Wicked Melody, but we will see how it goes in the end. 

My prediction for the ratings is that it will be a 3.5 million increase from last year. You may be surprised because there is no Barbie or Oppenheimer this year, but I will be looking to see how many tune in on Sunday night. Part of me questions if the Oscars can ever get back to pre-pandemic numbers, and I am starting to think that it will not happen. Last year was 19.5 million, so 23 million viewers. I will be tuning in at the Enzian Theater with Skip and some other friends so I hope nothing crazy happens.