by Kyle Flynn

With the 2024 Oscar Race coming to a close, another season rises. It is always exciting for me to begin predicting the following season, new movies, new narratives, and more times for me to cry and freak out. I compiled my predictions and Skip’s Early Oscar Predictions for the website. 

Best Picture (Mine): 

1. Marty Supreme
2. Untitled PTA Film (One Battle After Another)
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Micheal
5. The History of Sound
6. After the Hunt
7. Frankenstein
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash
9. The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Hamnet

Perhaps it is a mixture of smart choices and hopefulness from me. I am taking some swings by predicting History of Sound to get a Best Picture nomination and Marty Supreme in my first-place slot. Despite not being a big fan of The Substance, I hope it bodes well for the future of Mubi being able to capture that Film Twitter zeitgeist and push forward into the race. I have some hesitancy with Avatar: Fire and Ash since Way of Water was likely number 9 for Best Picture in 2022. 

Best Picture (Skip):

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
3. One Battle After Another
4. Highest 2 Lowest
5. Frankenstein
6. The Bride!
7. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
8. Mickey 17
9. Wake Up, Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
10. The Life of Chuck

Skip is a little smarter than me and went for the known entities. Wicked almost certainly will find its way into the race, and choosing the Tiff People’s Choice Winner, The Life of Chuck. 

Director (Mine):

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another
2. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
3. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
4. Oliver Hermanus (The History of Sound)
5. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

Feel good about the first three. If Marty Supreme is not as strong as expected it will have a strong tumble. 

Director (Skip):

1. Spike Lee (Highest 2 Lowest)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another
3. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
4. Christopher McQuarrie (MI: The Final Reckoning)
5. Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck)

Actor (Myself):

1. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Colin Farrell (The Ballad of a Small Player)
3. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
5. Jaafar Jackson (Micheal)

I considered slotting Pattinson for Die My, Love, or The Drama but ultimately felt they were too uncertain to bet on. Paul Mescal for The History of Sound and Jeremy Allen White are undeniably tempting.

Actor (Skip): 

1. Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest)
2. Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me from Nowhere0
3. Tom Hiddleston (The Life of Chuck)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
5. Daniel Craig  (Wake Up Dead Man)

Skip was considering a few other options, but he ended up settling on a few great options. 

Actress (Myself): 

1. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
2. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
4. Amanda Seyfried (Ann Lee)
5. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

My choices are a mix of likely hits and sound choices. Roberts and Erivo feel surprisingly strong. Renate Reinsve and Jessie Buckley have slowly created a larger body of seriously acclaimed work. Amanda Seyfried is great; perhaps Adrien winning the Oscar this year bodes true for her chances. 

Actress (Skip):

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Ana De Armas (Ballerina)
3. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
4. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
5. Jodie Comer (28 Years Later)

I noticeably excluded Emma Stone from my list, so I am glad Skip chose to represent her. Hamnet has gotten so much buzz, and Jessie Buckley, a previous nominee, is certainly a good idea to put her first.

Supporting Actor:

1. Coleman Domingo (Michael) 
2. Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt)
3. Josh O’Connor (The History of Sound)
4. Robert Pattinson (Die, My Love)
5. Tahar Rahim (Alpha)

If there was one of these early predictions, I feel semi-good about it, which would be Coleman winning for Michael.

Supporting Actor (Skip):

1. Christian Bale (The Bride!)
2. Keanu Reeves (Good Fortune)
3. Willem Dafoe (The Phoenician Scheme) 
4. Coleman Domingo (Michael)
5. Andre Holland (The Revisionist)

Skip has an interesting crop of choices. The Bride! is a film that we will have to keep an eye on. 

Supporting Actress (Myself):

1. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
2. Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt)
3. Tilda Swinton (The Ballad of a Small Player)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)
5. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man)

Feeling good about this. I predict two or three of these will materialize in noms, hopefully.

Supporting Actress (Skip):

1. Rachel Brosnahan (Superman)
2. Rebecca Ferguson (Untitled Kathryn Bigelow White House Thriller)
3. Vannessa Kirby (Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning)
4. Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt)
5. Cameron Diaz (Outcome) 

Rebecca Ferguson in the new Kathryn Bigelow film could 100% be a sleeper contender. Skip may be onto something here. 

Original Screenplay:

1. Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie)
2. After the Hunt (Nora Garrett)
3. Sentimental Value (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
4. Jay Kelly (Emily Mortimer, Noah Baumbach)
5. Rental Family (Hikari, Stephen Blahut)

An exciting lineup of screenwriters this year. Rental Family makes its first appearance in my early predictions. I have high hopes for this, and Brendan Fraser is on the cusp for Actor, and Rental Family is on the cusp for Picture. 

Original Screenplay (Skip): 

1. F1 (Joseph Kosinski, Ehren Kruger)
2. After the Hunt (Nora Garrett)
3. Michael (John Logan)
4. The Drama (Kristoffer Borgli)
5. Sorry, Baby (Eva Victor)

Adapted Screenplay (Myself):

1. The History of Sound (Oliver Hermanus, Ben Shattuck)
2. One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
3. Hamnet (Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell)
4. Frankenstein (Guillermo Del Toro)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)

Adapted Screenplay (Skip):

1. One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
2. Frankenstein (Guillermo Del Toro)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
4. The Life of Chuck (Mike Flanagan) 
5. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning (Christopher McQuarrie, Erik Jendresen)

Those are the early above-the-line predictions. I appreciate our owner, Skip, joining me for this edition to offer his insight. I thought it would be fun to add four more categories to these predictions being Animated, Documentary, International Feature, and the new category, Casting. It should be fun attempting to predict. 

Best Casting: 

1. Micheal 
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Marty Supreme
4. Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. Frankenstein

I imagine this category will have a strong bias towards biopic-type performances and iconic characters. So, I am leaning on three biopics and two adaptations of famous characters. All are probably fairly close to Best Picture. 

Best Animated Feature:

1. Wildwood (Laika)
2. Elio (Pixar)
3. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol (Sylvain Chomet)
4. Zootopia 2 (Disney Animation)
5. The Twits (Netflix)

Netflix has been fairly consistent in getting nominations in the past few years. The Twits does not look great, but I will predict it. 

Best International Feature:

1. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
2. No Other Choice (Park Chan-Wook)
3. Alpha (Julia Ducournau)
4. All That’s Left of You (Cherien Dabis)
5. Kontinental ‘25 (Radu Jude)

Who knows? Half of these may not even get submitted, but I tried. 

Best Documentary Feature:

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. The Moelln Letters
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
5. Prime Minister

Feeling good about this, which is a little concerning. Feeling too good about too many categories so early on. 

Hopefully, next year, we are not cringing at these predictions. Thank you for reading the Golden Row.